Russia unlikely to deploy nukes in Ukraine conflict, says ex-NATO deputyA former top NATO diplomat says she doesn't believe Russian President Vladimir Putin would use nuclear weapons if western countries intervene to stop his invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

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Rose Gottemoeller says President Putin has cried 'wolf' more than once

Chris Hall · CBC News(Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters)

Kolga is a senior fellow with the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute and an expert on eastern European politics. He told The House the protests are a reflection of Putin's declining public support.

"He cannot afford to have young dead soldiers coming back to Russia at this point," he said. "It's entirely likely that if this is a protracted conflict ... that will jeopardize his own position."

In the meantime, western nations continue to ramp up the financial pressure in the hopes of destabilizing Russia's economy, just as Putin is trying to destabilize Europe and the NATO alliance.

WATCH: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau details sanctions on Putin and his associates

Trudeau explains how new sanctions will affect Russian President Vladimir Putin and his associates

3 days agoDuration 1:33Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says this is the first time the West has imposed sanctions affecting Putin personally.1:33

At a news conference Friday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Putin made a grave mistake by invading Ukraine.

"He has underestimated the resolve and the ability of the western democracies to stand up to defend not just our friends, but our values, our principles and indeed the unprecedented period of peace and stability that has lasted over 75 years," he said.

On Friday, Canada joined other western nations in adding Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and other architects of the invasion to the growing list of Russians facing sanctions.

SWIFT justice

But those same western leaders have been unable to agree on whether to block Russian banks from the SWIFT communications system that connects thousands of banks around the world.

Proponents of the move — including Canada — say banning Russia from SWIFT would have an immediate and severe impact on Russia's ability to do business in international markets and finance the invasion.

Opponents — including Germany — argue that kicking Russia out of SWIFT would provoke an even deeper economic crisis for markets already grappling with the impact of the invasion itself.

Germany's Ambassador to Canada Sabine Sparwasser told The Housein a separate interview airing this weekend that the move could damage countries other than Russia.

"When you roll out the sanctions, you should look for the sanctions that hit the responsible people and the people who can affect truly change in Russian policy the most," she said. "So Germany, for example, has been pushing for individual sanctions against Putin directly."

War by other means

Bill Browder, the British financier who has been the driving force behind the use of sanctions to punish corrupt regimes, said banning Russian banks from SWIFT would have a more profound impact than sanctioning Putin directly.

"It would knock them back to the Dark Ages economically, and it would be such a powerful and important reaction," he said. "This would be the financial equivalent of what he's done militarily."

Sanctions and soldiers. That's where the international battle lines have been drawn in this war for Ukraine.

"I think now we are punishing [Putin] and we must continue to punish him with the sanctions that are being meted out and they will continue," Gottemoeller said. "And I think that that will begin to have an effect. I know on business, the economy of Russia, perhaps the pressure will build from that direction."

But she conceded Putin and his inner circle have resisted economic pressure before.

"He seems at the moment quite resolved."

• Listen to CBC Radio's The House: Soldiers and sanctions

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Chris Hall

National Affairs Editor

Chris Hall is the CBC's National Affairs Editor and host of The House on CBC Radio, based in the Parliamentary Bureau in Ottawa. He began his reporting career with the Ottawa Citizen, before moving to CBC Radio in 1992, where he worked as a national radio reporter in Toronto, Halifax and St. John's. He returned to Ottawa and the Hill in 1998. Follow him on Twitter: @chrishallcbc

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